Doorbraak-radar

Wat staat op punt te breken

Elk AI-thema doorloopt een vaste keten: het begint in wetenschappelijke papers, krijgt een implementatie bij developers, en breekt pas daarna door in het nieuws. Wij volgen elk thema door die keten — en meten hoeveel voorsprong we op de mainstream media hebben. De middelste kolom is waar het gebeurt: sterk in expert-bronnen, nog niet in de mainstream.

Laatst bijgewerkt: 21 jul 2026 · 14-daags venster

Niet alleen een model — we hebben het teruggemeten. Over de afgelopen60 dagen vlagden we 49 thema's als "staat op punt te breken". Hiervan brak 5 daadwerkelijk door in de mainstream media binnen 14 dagen:

10%brak echt door
7.8dgem. voorsprong op de mainstream media
12dgrootste voorsprong
49gescoorde calls
In de wetenschapArXiv-papers — het vroegste signaal9
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Staat op punt te brekenSterk signaal — de mainstream media heeft het nog niet10

⚡ Het alpha-venster

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Breekt doorDe mainstream media pikt het nu op10
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Hoe je dit leest

Corroboratie telt hoeveel verschillende bronklassen een thema oppikken — spreiding over bronnen is een sterker signaal dan veel ruis uit één hoek. De voorsprong (alleen in de alpha-kolom) is het aandeel activiteit dat in expert-bronnen zit terwijl de mainstream media nog stil is: hoe hoger, hoe groter het open venster.▲/▼ is de wekelijkse versnelling.

Bewezen doorbraken

Concrete thema's die we als "staat op punt te breken" vlagden — en het aantal dagen voorsprong vóórdat de mainstream media volgde.

De doorbraakketen

De vroegheidsketen is empirisch: een techniek verschijnt eerst als ArXiv-paper, krijgt weken later een GitHub-implementatie, bereikt dan HackerNews en Product Hunt, en haalt pas daarna de tech-media. Een thema dat tegelijk in ArXiv én GitHub opduikt maar nog niet in het nieuws is het sterkst mogelijke vroege signaal. Deze radar maakt die positie zichtbaar — en update elke dag mee.

Geen cherry-picking: dit is de volledige, gecureerde set. We filteren ruis (tickers, jargon, evergreen-termen als "AI" of "LLM" die altijd bovenaan staan) eruit, zodat alleen echte, onderscheidende signalen overblijven. Wil je het bewijs achteraf? Zie detrack record — wat we eerder vlagden en wanneer de mainstream media volgde.